Shiva Moradi; Nader Naderi; Sohrab Delangizan
Abstract
Today, in the age of digital developments, financial technologies (fintechs) have become an integral part of the banking industry. These technologies have challenged the future of the banking industry. So the purpose of this study is to identify the future scenarios of the banking industry and fintech ...
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Today, in the age of digital developments, financial technologies (fintechs) have become an integral part of the banking industry. These technologies have challenged the future of the banking industry. So the purpose of this study is to identify the future scenarios of the banking industry and fintech startups in Iran, on 1404 horizon. The research is applied according to the type of purpose and exploratory from the methodological point of view. By using purposive sampling and theoretical saturation, 17 interviews were done with co-founders of fintech startups and managers and experts in banking and Fintech industry. In the first step, using interview analysis and background review, 38 drivers influencing the future of the banking and fintech industry were identified. Among the mentioned drivers, 4 key uncertainties were identified using a combination of the results of two methods: structural analysis and instantaneous Delphi. By plotting two possible scenarios for each of them in the future, 16 possible scenarios were obtained. In the meantime, some scenarios were omitted due to similarity and incompatibility to other scenarios. Based on the morphological analysis, out of 16 possible scenarios, 5 scenarios remained and the other scenarios were eliminated. Thus five scenarios include; "The paradise of fintechs in the banking system", "migration of fintechs”, "crucified fintechs", "resistance fintechs" and "creeping fintechs" were identified, which according to the experts, the scenario paradise of fintechs In the banking system was introduced as a favorable scenario in the horizon of 1404.
hamid bekamiri; Mohammad Lagzian; Alireza Pooya; Hossein Sharif
Abstract
While this study identifies the most important key indicators that influence the banking industry, it also attempts to provide a forecast for the Iranian banking industry in the future. Scenario planning and cross-impact matrix are used in this study. Among all the identified factors, 29 key factors ...
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While this study identifies the most important key indicators that influence the banking industry, it also attempts to provide a forecast for the Iranian banking industry in the future. Scenario planning and cross-impact matrix are used in this study. Among all the identified factors, 29 key factors influencing the future of the industry were selected through a fuzzy analytical hierarchical process and then the impact of each of these factors was determined through analysis of the cross-impact matrix. The cross-impact balance was then used to write scenarios.Accordingly, of all combined scenarios, the most likely strong scenarios were clustered into five general categories using K-mode clustering. Finally, four scenarios were identified, including optimism for the bank, banking industry development, inflationary conditions and sanctions. It was therefore possible to define action plans for each of the scenarios.
