Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Management Entrepreneurship Department, Social Science Faculty, Razi university, Kermanshah

2 Assistant Professor of Management Entrepreneurship Department, Social Science Faculty, Razi University, Kermanshah

3 Associate Professor of Economics Department, Social Science Faculty, Razi University, Kermanshah

Abstract

Today, in the age of digital developments, financial technologies (fintechs) have become an integral part of the banking industry. These technologies have challenged the future of the banking industry. So the purpose of this study is to identify the future scenarios of the banking industry and fintech startups in Iran, on 1404 horizon. The research is applied according to the type of purpose and exploratory from the methodological point of view. By using purposive sampling and theoretical saturation, 17 interviews were done with co-founders of fintech startups and managers and experts in banking and Fintech industry. In the first step, using interview analysis and background review, 38 drivers influencing the future of the banking and fintech industry were identified. Among the mentioned drivers, 4 key uncertainties were identified using a combination of the results of two methods: structural analysis and instantaneous Delphi. By plotting two possible scenarios for each of them in the future, 16 possible scenarios were obtained. In the meantime, some scenarios were omitted due to similarity and incompatibility to other scenarios. Based on the morphological analysis, out of 16 possible scenarios, 5 scenarios remained and the other scenarios were eliminated. Thus five scenarios include; "The paradise of fintechs in the banking system", "migration of fintechs”, "crucified fintechs", "resistance fintechs" and "creeping fintechs" were identified, which according to the experts, the scenario paradise of fintechs In the banking system was introduced as a favorable scenario in the horizon of 1404.

Keywords

بایرام­زاده، سونا و رجبی نهوجی، میثم. (1398). اکتشاف سناریوهای آینده بانکداری الکترونیک در ایران. فصلنامه سیاستگذاری عمومی، 5(2)،9-24. DOI: 10.22059/PPOLICY .2019.72270  
رشیدارده، حبیب­الله، خزائی، سعید و مقدم زنجانی، محمدولی.(1396). آینده پیش­روی صنعت بانکداری ایران با رویکرد سناریوپردازی. مطالعات مدیریت راهبردی،30 (65)، 65-89.
شامخی، وحید و باباخانی، سعید. (1399). آینده بانک مجازی در ایران در افق 1410. تهران: شرکت تجارت الکترونیک ارتباط فردا.
علی­حسینی، سعید. (1398). «طراحی سناریوهای آینده نظام بانکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق 1414». استاد راهنما: غلامرضا گودرزی. رساله دکتری، قزوین: دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)- پژوهشکده آینده‌پژوهی.
مبینی دهکردی، علی و کشاورز ترک، مصطفی. (1395). دیده­بانی روندهای فناوری اطلاعات موثر بر کسب‏وکارهای فعال در صنعت بانکداری ایران. مجله مجلس و راهبرد، 24(89)، 184-159.  
References
Accenture. (2018). Fintech and the Evolving Landscape: Landing Points for the Industry. https://www.accenture.com
Agnanmote, A. (2017). Fintech revolution in banking: leading the way to digital. Retrieved from: https://www.infosys.com
Capgemini. (2017). Top 10 Trends in Banking – 2017. https://www.capgemini.com
Chandler, S. (2020). Coronavirus drives 72% rise in use of fintech apps. Forbes, 30 March, 2020)
Deloitte. (2018). Future of trade and internet sales in Finland. Deloitte & report, www.deloitte.com
Deloitte. (2020). Fintech; on the brink of further disruption. The Netherlands; Mordor Intelligence, Deloitte analysis.
Eckenrode, J. and Gaurav V. (2020). The 2019 fintech industry saw trends of continued and higher funding for older venture capital backed startups and an increased focus on global diversity. Deloitte Co. Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/ services/articles/fintech-investors-enthusiastic-yet-strategically-picking-their-spots.html pages/financial
EY Co. )2013(. Accelerating development in Montreal’s Fintech ecosystem: findings and recommendations. Finance Montreal. https://www.ey.com
Forrester. (2010). 15 technology trends to watch for. www.forrester.com
Greenwich Associates. (2016). The Future of Banking: 2025. www.greenwich.com
Kobler, D., Frick, J., and Stanford A. (2015). Swiss Banking Business Models of the Future, Embarking to New Horizons. Retrieved from: https://www2.deloitte.com
KPMG. (2017). Banking on the future. The road map to becoming the banking partner of Gen Y professionals. https://home.kpmg
Lee, I. (2016). Fintech: Ecosystem and Business Models. Advanced Science and Technology Letters, (142), 57-62. DOi: 10.1016/j.bushor.2017.09.003
Lee, S., Ribeiro, D., Olson, D. and Roig, S. (2007). The importance of the activities of service business in the economy. Service Business, 1(1), 1–5.  Doi:10.1007/s11628-006-0007-6
Lee, T.H. & Kim, H.W. (2015). An Exploratory Study on Fintech Industry in Korea: Crowd funding Case. 2nd International conference on Innovative Engineering Technologies (ICIET'2015) August, 2015, Bangkok (Thailand). Doi: 10.15242/iie.e0815045
Lincoln, Y. S. & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic Inquiry. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.
Mahmood, H. & Clarice, W. (2015). The Online Banking Behavior of Generation Y. XIV International Business and Economy Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, January 5–8. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2549898
Marous, J. (2018). 2019 retail banking trends and predictions. https://www.digitalbankingreport.com
McKinsey & Company. (2018). Synergy and Disruption: Ten Trends Shaping FinTech.
Ovaskainen, M. and Tinnilä, M. (2011). "Megatrends in electronic business: An analysis of the impacts on SME’s ". International Journal of E-Entrepreneurship and Innovation, 2(1), 1-15. Doi: 10.4018/jeei.2011010101
Strauss, W. & Howe N. (2000). Millennial Rising: The Next Great Generation. New York: NY: Vintage Original.
Taft, J. (2007). An examination of the antecedents of electronic banking technology acceptance and use. A dissertation presented to the faculty of the college of business administration of Touro University, requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy
TNS. (2008). New future in store: How will shopping change between now and 2015. TNS Global Research report. http://www.tnsglobal.com
References [In Persian]
Ali Hosseini, S. (1398). "Designing future scenarios of the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon of 1414". Supervisor: Gholamreza Goodarzi. Doctoral dissertation, Qazvin: Imam Khomeini International University - Future Research Institute. [In Persian]
 Bayramzadeh, S. and Rajabi Nahoji, M. (1398). Exploring future scenarios of electronic banking in Iran. Journal of Public Policy, 5 (2), 9-24. [In Persian]
Mobini Dehkordi, A. and Keshavarz Turk, M. (1395). Monitoring IT trends affecting businesses active in the Iranian banking industry. Journal of Parliament and Strategy, 24 (89), 159-184. [In Persian]
Rashidardeh, H., Khazaei, S., and Moghaddam Zanjani, M. V. (1396). The future of the Iranian banking industry with a scenario approach. Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 30(65), 65-89. [In Persian].
Shamkhi, V., and Babakhani, S. (1399). The future of virtual banking in Iran on the horizon of 1410. Tehran: Farda Electronic Commerce Company. [In Persian]
بایرام­زاده، سونا و رجبی نهوجی، میثم. (1398). اکتشاف سناریوهای آینده بانکداری الکترونیک در ایران. فصلنامه سیاستگذاری عمومی، 5(2)،9-24. DOI: 10.22059/PPOLICY .2019.72270  
رشیدارده، حبیب­الله، خزائی، سعید و مقدم زنجانی، محمدولی.(1396). آینده پیش­روی صنعت بانکداری ایران با رویکرد سناریوپردازی. مطالعات مدیریت راهبردی،30 (65)، 65-89.
شامخی، وحید و باباخانی، سعید. (1399). آینده بانک مجازی در ایران در افق 1410. تهران: شرکت تجارت الکترونیک ارتباط فردا.
علی­حسینی، سعید. (1398). «طراحی سناریوهای آینده نظام بانکی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق 1414». استاد راهنما: غلامرضا گودرزی. رساله دکتری، قزوین: دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)- پژوهشکده آینده‌پژوهی.
مبینی دهکردی، علی و کشاورز ترک، مصطفی. (1395). دیده­بانی روندهای فناوری اطلاعات موثر بر کسب‏وکارهای فعال در صنعت بانکداری ایران. مجله مجلس و راهبرد، 24(89)، 184-159.  
References
Accenture. (2018). Fintech and the Evolving Landscape: Landing Points for the Industry. https://www.accenture.com
Agnanmote, A. (2017). Fintech revolution in banking: leading the way to digital. Retrieved from: https://www.infosys.com
Capgemini. (2017). Top 10 Trends in Banking – 2017. https://www.capgemini.com
Chandler, S. (2020). Coronavirus drives 72% rise in use of fintech apps. Forbes, 30 March, 2020)
Deloitte. (2018). Future of trade and internet sales in Finland. Deloitte & report, www.deloitte.com
Deloitte. (2020). Fintech; on the brink of further disruption. The Netherlands; Mordor Intelligence, Deloitte analysis.
Eckenrode, J. and Gaurav V. (2020). The 2019 fintech industry saw trends of continued and higher funding for older venture capital backed startups and an increased focus on global diversity. Deloitte Co. Available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/ services/articles/fintech-investors-enthusiastic-yet-strategically-picking-their-spots.html pages/financial
EY Co. )2013(. Accelerating development in Montreal’s Fintech ecosystem: findings and recommendations. Finance Montreal. https://www.ey.com
Forrester. (2010). 15 technology trends to watch for. www.forrester.com
Greenwich Associates. (2016). The Future of Banking: 2025. www.greenwich.com
Kobler, D., Frick, J., and Stanford A. (2015). Swiss Banking Business Models of the Future, Embarking to New Horizons. Retrieved from: https://www2.deloitte.com
KPMG. (2017). Banking on the future. The road map to becoming the banking partner of Gen Y professionals. https://home.kpmg
Lee, I. (2016). Fintech: Ecosystem and Business Models. Advanced Science and Technology Letters, (142), 57-62. DOi: 10.1016/j.bushor.2017.09.003
Lee, S., Ribeiro, D., Olson, D. and Roig, S. (2007). The importance of the activities of service business in the economy. Service Business, 1(1), 1–5.  Doi:10.1007/s11628-006-0007-6
Lee, T.H. & Kim, H.W. (2015). An Exploratory Study on Fintech Industry in Korea: Crowd funding Case. 2nd International conference on Innovative Engineering Technologies (ICIET'2015) August, 2015, Bangkok (Thailand). Doi: 10.15242/iie.e0815045
Lincoln, Y. S. & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic Inquiry. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.
Mahmood, H. & Clarice, W. (2015). The Online Banking Behavior of Generation Y. XIV International Business and Economy Conference, Bangkok, Thailand, January 5–8. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2549898
Marous, J. (2018). 2019 retail banking trends and predictions. https://www.digitalbankingreport.com
McKinsey & Company. (2018). Synergy and Disruption: Ten Trends Shaping FinTech.
Ovaskainen, M. and Tinnilä, M. (2011). "Megatrends in electronic business: An analysis of the impacts on SME’s ". International Journal of E-Entrepreneurship and Innovation, 2(1), 1-15. Doi: 10.4018/jeei.2011010101
Strauss, W. & Howe N. (2000). Millennial Rising: The Next Great Generation. New York: NY: Vintage Original.
Taft, J. (2007). An examination of the antecedents of electronic banking technology acceptance and use. A dissertation presented to the faculty of the college of business administration of Touro University, requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy
TNS. (2008). New future in store: How will shopping change between now and 2015. TNS Global Research report. http://www.tnsglobal.com
References [In Persian]
Ali Hosseini, S. (1398). "Designing future scenarios of the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon of 1414". Supervisor: Gholamreza Goodarzi. Doctoral dissertation, Qazvin: Imam Khomeini International University - Future Research Institute. [In Persian]
 Bayramzadeh, S. and Rajabi Nahoji, M. (1398). Exploring future scenarios of electronic banking in Iran. Journal of Public Policy, 5 (2), 9-24. [In Persian]
Mobini Dehkordi, A. and Keshavarz Turk, M. (1395). Monitoring IT trends affecting businesses active in the Iranian banking industry. Journal of Parliament and Strategy, 24 (89), 159-184. [In Persian]
Rashidardeh, H., Khazaei, S., and Moghaddam Zanjani, M. V. (1396). The future of the Iranian banking industry with a scenario approach. Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 30(65), 65-89. [In Persian].
Shamkhi, V., and Babakhani, S. (1399). The future of virtual banking in Iran on the horizon of 1410. Tehran: Farda Electronic Commerce Company. [In Persian]