مطالعات مدیریت کسب و کار هوشمند
مطالعات مدیریت کسب و کار هوشمند

آینده‌پژوهی توسعه هوش مصنوعی در ایران با رویکرد سناریونویسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

حسین محبی 1
سعید طرفی 2

1 استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد. میبد. ایران.

2 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22054/ims.2025.84715.2597
چکیده
هوش مصنوعی به عنوان یکی از پیشروترین فناوری‌ها با سرعتی فزاینده در حال تحول است. ایران، به‌عنوان کشوری درحال‌توسعه، نیازمند درک عمیق از مسیرهای آینده این فناوری و برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی برای بهره‌گیری بهینه از آن است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی آینده توسعه هوش مصنوعی در ایران، با رویکرد سناریونویسی ساختاری در افق ۱۴۱۴ انجام شده است. روش‌شناسی پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و برحسب نحوه گردآوری داده‌ها توصیفی-پیمایشی است. جامعه‌ آماری پژوهش، اساتید، مدیران و خبرگان صنعت هوش مصنوعی هستند. برخلاف مطالعات پیشین که عمدتاً بر حوزه‌های خاصی از هوش مصنوعی متمرکز بودند، این پژوهش با نگاهی جامع و در سطح ملی، نخستین چارچوب سناریونویسی مبتنی بر تحلیل ساختاری که منجر به تدوین چهار سناریوی خلاء هوش مصنوعی، رنسانس هوش مصنوعی، سراب هوش مصنوعی و معاملات هوش مصنوعی شد را ارائه می‌دهد. این سناریوها برپایه تحلیل پیشران‌های کلیدی همچون سیاست‌ها و حمایت‌های دولتی، زیرساخت‌های پیشرفته فناوری، چالش-‌های تکینگی فناورانه، تأثیرات ژئوپلیتیک، رصدخانه‌ها و شتاب‌دهنده‌های فناوری و نیز کاربردهای هوش مصنوعی در صنایع تدوین شده‌اند. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که آینده توسعه هوش مصنوعی در ایران تا حد زیادی به حمایت‌های دولتی و توسعه زیرساخت‌های مناسب وابسته است. سناریوهای بحرانی نیازمند مداخلات فوری در سیاست‌گذاری ملی بوده، درحالی که سناریوهای مطلوب فرصت‌هایی را برای توسعه پایدار هوش مصنوعی در کشور فراهم می‌کنند. این سناریوها می‌توانند مبنای طراحی استراتژی‌های سیاستی مشخص مانند تدوین نقشه‌راه ملی توسعه هوش مصنوعی و بازطراحی نظام‌های حمایتی فناورانه قرار گیرند و چارچوبی تحلیلی برای تصمیم‌گیری در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت فراهم ‌سازند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آینده‌پژوهی
سناریو‌نویسی
تحلیل اثرات متقابل
هوش مصنوعی
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Futures Studies on Artificial Intelligence Development in Iran: A Scenario Planning Approach

نویسندگان English

hossein Mohebbi 1
saeid Torfi 2
1 Assistant Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran.
2 Masters student of Industrial Management, Department of Management, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran.
چکیده English

Artificial Intelligence (AI), as one of the most transformative emerging technologies, is rapidly evolving and reshaping various sectors. For Iran, as a developing country, understanding the future trajectories of AI and implementing strategic planning for its optimal development are of critical importance. This study aims to explore the future of AI development in Iran using a structural scenario planning approach with a horizon set to 2035. The research is applied in nature and employs a descriptive-survey method for data collection. The statistical population includes university professors, managers, and experts in the AI industry. Unlike previous studies that primarily focused on specific domains of AI, this research adopts a comprehensive and national-level perspective, introducing the first structural scenario framework for AI development in Iran. It identifies and analyzes four key scenarios: the AI Vacuum, the AI Renaissance, the AI Mirage, and AI Transactions. These scenarios are built upon the analysis of critical driving forces, such as governmental policies, advanced technological infrastructure, challenges of technological singularity, geopolitical dynamics, innovation accelerators, and AI applications across industries. The findings reveal that the future development of AI in Iran is highly dependent on governmental support and the advancement of appropriate infrastructure. While critical scenarios demand immediate policy intervention, the more desirable ones offer significant opportunities for sustainable AI growth. These scenarios can serve as a foundation for designing targeted policy strategies, such as a national AI roadmap and the restructuring of innovation support systems, thereby providing a structured framework for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Futures studies
Scenario planning
Cross-impact analysis
Artificial intelligence
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مطالعات مدیریت کسب و کار هوشمند
دوره 14، شماره 53
پاییز 1404
صفحه 159-204

  • تاریخ دریافت 20 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 05 خرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 09 خرداد 1404

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