نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• هما صوفی ¹
• حبیب رودساز ²
• داود حسین پور ²
• حسین اصلی‌پور ²

¹ دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت دولتی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران نویسنده مسئول: soufi.homa@gmail.com

² دانشیار گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تحول دیجیتال در صنعت بانکداری به عنوان یک عامل کلیدی برای رشد و تغییرات بانک‌ها شناخته می‌شود. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی پس‌آیندهای (خروجی‌ها و اثرات) مورد انتظار پس از اجرای خط‌مشی استقرار بانکداری دیجیتال و با رویکردی اکتشافی و کاربردی-توسعه‌ای انجام شد. روش پژوهش به صورت آمیخته و شامل دو بخش کیفی و کمّی است. جامعه مشارکت‌کنندگان در بخش کیفی شامل خبرگان حوزه بانکداری و خط‌مشی‌گذاری هستند. نمونه‌گیری با روش هدفمند انجام و با 25 مصاحبه اشباع نظری حاصل شد. در بخش کمّی نیز دیدگاه 354 نفر از مدیران و کارشناسان بانکی با ابزار پرسشنامه محقق‌ساخته جمع‌آوری گردید. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌های گردآوری شده از روش تحلیل کیفی مضمون و حداقل مربعات جزئی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که خروجی‌های اولیه ناشی از اجرای خط‌مشی استقرار بانکداری دیجیتال شامل ابعاد درآمد و موقعیت بازار، بهره‌وری هزینه، جذب و رضایت مشتریان، مشخصات پایه بانک، مدیریت داده‌ها، محصولات و خدمات، فناوری‌ها و کانال‌های بانکی و مدیریت ریسک می‌باشد. همچنین، اثرات بلندمدت و پایدار تحول دیجیتال در نظام بانکداری شامل ابعاد شفافیت و عدالت، خلق فرصت‌های جدید، چشم‌انداز بانکداری و اقتصاد کشور، تفکر و رهبری دیجیتال، تأثیرات اجتماعی و محیطی، خط‌مشی‌گذاری و برنامه‌ریزی بلندمدت و شبکه‌سازی داخلی و خارجی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• تحول دیجیتال
• بانکداری دیجیتال
• ارزیابی خط‌مشی
• پس‌آیندهای خط‌مشی

موضوعات

• رویکردهای مدیریتی در حوزه کسب‌ وکار هوشمند

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Consequences of Digital Banking Policy in Iran: An Analysis of Outputs and Long-term Impacts

نویسندگان [English]

• Homa Soufi ¹
• Habib Roodsaz ²
• Davoud Hosseinpour ²
• Hosein Aslipour ²

¹ Ph.D. Student in Public Administration, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, IranCorresponding Author: soufi.homa@gmail.com

² Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Digital transformation in the banking sector is recognized as a critical driver of growth and change. This study investigates the anticipated outcomes (both outputs and impacts) following the implementation of digital banking policies, utilizing an exploratory and applied-developmental approach. The research adopts a mixed-method design, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative phases. In the qualitative phase, experts in banking and policymaking were interviewed using purposive sampling, reaching theoretical saturation after 25 interviews. In the quantitative phase, data was collected from 354 bank managers and professionals through a researcher-developed questionnaire. The data was analyzed using thematic analysis for the qualitative part and the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method for the quantitative part. The results indicate that the initial outcomes of digital banking policy implementation include improvements in revenue and market positioning, cost efficiency, customer acquisition and satisfaction, bank infrastructure, data management, banking products and services, banking technologies and channels, and risk management. Additionally, the long-term and sustainable impacts of digital transformation in the banking system encompass transparency and justice, the creation of new opportunities, the future outlook of banking and the economy, digital leadership and mindset, social and environmental impacts, long-term policymaking and planning, as well as internal and external networking.

Introduction

Digital transformation is a crucial driver of development, particularly in the banking sector, where it reshapes traditional business models and operational processes, enabling efficient online financial services. Despite these advancements, Iranian banks face infrastructural and regulatory challenges, such as weak IT systems and traditional organizational cultures, which hinder the full adoption of digital solutions. To address these issues and align with global standards, comprehensive digital banking policies are necessary. This study explores the effects of these policies, focusing on the changes they bring about in both the short and long term. In this context, the fundamental research question is: What are the expected dimensions and components of the outputs and long-term impacts following the implementation of digital banking policies during the evaluation period?

Literature Review

Digital transformation in banking refers to the use of digital technologies to fundamentally improve and change the processes and structures of traditional banking. This transformation includes the application of technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data, and cloud computing, which enable banks to offer innovative and customized services to customers (Vial, 2014). The emergence of fintech companies and the provision of digital financial services have pressured traditional banks to digitalize their structures. As a result, banks have developed digital transformation policies to remain competitive and align with market changes (Salamatitaba et al., 2017). In digital banking policy-making, evaluation is recognized as one of the most critical stages in the policy cycle. According to various literature and definitions, outputs are the immediate results obtained in the short term following the implementation of the policy, including direct improvements in digital banking services and processes. These results are typically observable within 1 to 3 years after the policy is implemented. In contrast, impacts refer to the long-term outcomes that emerge between 5 to 10 years post-implementation, encompassing the lasting effects and consequences of the policy. Research indicates that digital transformation in banking leads to improved customer satisfaction, enhanced transaction security, and optimized processes.

Methodology

This applied-developmental study employs a mixed-method approach. In the qualitative phase, 31 banking and policy experts were selected through purposive and snowball sampling, with saturation reached after 25 interviews. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis with MAXQDA software. In the quantitative phase, a survey was administered to 354 bank managers and experts, with the sample size calculated using Cochran's formula. The researcher-developed questionnaire included 36 items based on a five-point Likert scale. Reliability was evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha, yielding a score above 0.7. Data analysis was conducted using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method with SmartPLS software to validate the findings.

Results

The thematic analysis of the qualitative data identified 88 descriptive codes, 21 interpretative codes, and 8 overarching themes for the outputs, as well as 54 descriptive codes, 15 interpretative codes, and 7 overarching themes for the impacts following the implementation of digital banking policies. The outputs were categorized into areas such as revenue and market positioning, cost efficiency, customer acquisition and satisfaction, bank infrastructure, data management, products and services, banking technologies and channels, and risk management. The long-term impacts included dimensions such as transparency and justice, the creation of new opportunities, the outlook for banking and the economy, digital thinking and leadership, social and environmental impacts, long-term policymaking and planning, and internal and external networking. Quantitative data analysis was conducted using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method with SmartPLS software. The model was validated through relevant statistical tests, demonstrating a satisfactory fit and reliability.

Discussion & Conclusion

The findings align with key studies. Czerwińska et al. (2021) confirmed that investment in digital technologies enhances banks' competitive positions, which this study supports. Similarly, Lydiana et al. (2022) highlighted the role of digital transformation in fostering innovation, with this study further expanding the focus to service development. Consistent with Agboola et al. (2019), this research shows that digital transformation improves cost efficiency and operational performance. The impact on customer satisfaction and acquisition aligns with Aydin & Onayli (2020), emphasizing the role of digital experiences in customer growth. The analysis of organizational transformation matches Mirković et al. (2019), and the emphasis on data management is consistent with Sadigh et al (2022).
This study differentiates between the short-term outputs and long-term impacts of digital transformation in banks, providing a unique perspective compared to previous studies. It offers localized insights tailored to the Iranian market, making the findings particularly relevant for policymakers. It emphasizes that policymakers and regulatory bodies, such as the Central Bank, should prioritize strengthening IT infrastructure, developing comprehensive data security and privacy regulations, and focusing on new technologies like open banking and big data. The results indicate that the long-term effects of digital transformation on economic indicators and customer behavior require further investigation. Future studies could explore these effects over different time periods and examine how technologies such as AI and blockchain influence customer psychology, including decision-making, trust, and satisfaction, as well as social factors like access to banking services and the distribution of opportunities.
Keywords: Digital Transformation, Digital Banking, Policy Evaluation, Policy Outcomes.
 
 

پس‌آیندهای خط‌مشی بانکداری دیجیتال 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• digital transformation
• digital banking
• policy evaluation
• policy outcomes